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【Journal of Business Finance & Accounting】Geographic Links and Predictable Returns

2024-03-04  click:[]

Authors: Zuben Jin (Institute of Financial Studies, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics), Frank Weikai Li (Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University)


Using establishment-level data of U.S. public firms, we construct a novel measure of geographic linkage between firms. We show that the returns of geography-linked firms have strong predictive power for focal firm returns and fundamentals. This effect is distinct from other cross-firm return predictability and is not easily attributable to risk-based explanations. It is more pronounced for focal firms that receive lower investor attention, are more costly to arbitrage, and during high sentiment periods. The cross-firm information spillovers and return predictability are also stronger for geographic peers with economic linkages and with positive information. Our results are broadly consistent with sluggish price adjustment to nuanced geographic information.

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